The WP will provide a quantitative description of the primary (or direct) driver, climate change (CC), and of the indirect (or secondary) driver, the socio-economic factors.
1) the CC driver will be described by means of recent climatic scenarios for validation of models and large and regional scale scenarios respectively from GCMs and RCMs simulations according to selected IPCC emission scenarios;
2) validation of spatial and temporal extent of snow cover at global to local scale computed by spatially explicit models under different climate scenarios;
3) validation of timing and amount of runoff generated from snow pack at a fine temporal scale estimated under different climate scenarios;
4) the socio-economic factors will be quantified by means of scenarios of socioeconomic developments, such as drivers of land use changes, drivers of energy demand, changes in agricultural policies, etc.